Not sure why so many housing reports are coming in the print media, slow news day. This is says that the interest rate will go up, if that happens we are busted.
This is the latest. If you read on it is a guess.
Canada’s housing market will slow over the next two years as low oil prices continue to take their toll on the economy despite rock-bottom interest rates, the federal housing agency predicts.
Nationally, the pace of new home construction is set to fall 4.1 per cent this year, Canada Mortgage and Housing Agency said in a new forecast. Prices of resale homes will rise 3.4 per cent this year before slowing to 1.5 per cent next year as resale activity falls slightly.
By the end of this year, CMHC expects the national average resale home price to range from $402,139 to $439,589. Reflecting the level of uncertainty among economists about the future of interest rates and oil prices, CMHC says average home prices could fall to as low as $398,191 in 2016 or could rise as high as $457,200.
Much of the change in average prices reflects the shifting preferences among buyers, who had been flocking to higher-priced detached homes in the past year, particularly in expensive markets like Toronto and Vancouver, but who may start looking toward more affordable entry-level homes, such as townhouses or condos. A glut of existing supply will keep the level of new home construction in check.
Oil-dependent provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan will bear the brunt of the slowdown in the market, CMHC said. Home prices will fall below the national average in Alberta as oil settles around $50-$60 (US) a barrel this year. Prices in major markets in Ontario and B.C. will continue to rise faster than employment and wage gains. Quebec’s housing market will also see a rebound as the economy improves, while home prices will likely be flat or fall across Atlantic Canada because of weak employment growth.
The federal housing agency is also predicting that mortgage rates will rise slightly over the next two years, with five-year posted rates set to range from 4 to 5.5 per cent this year, rising to 4.2 to 6.2 per cent next year.
High household debt will remain the biggest risk to the housing market over the next two years, CMHC said. ’If the unemployment rate among Canadians rises materially, many may need to access their wealth to make ends meet for a period of time,” the forecast said. “However, with household equity being concentrated in a non-liquid asset such as housing, such a shock could be amplified by the need to sell, resulting in a sudden glut of homes for sale, putting downward pressure on prices and eroding household wealth.”
Rising unemployment and a fall in the number of temporary foreign workers in the province will hit Alberta’s housing market. New home construction will slow as the province heads into a buyer’s market. Average resale prices will range from $366,600 to $402,000 this year and from $360,400 and $409,500 in 2016.
Unemployment will rise from 3.8 per cent this year to 4.6 per cent in 2016, CMHC predicts, pushing prices down. Average resale prices will range from $282,000 to $304,500 in 2015 and from $279,000 to $315,400 next year.
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