The cost of homes in Regina may be about to fall.
Housing sales in Regina were down in the month of June. Meanwhile, listings were at a 10-year high.
"That means there's excess supply hanging around — not enough demand," said University of British Columbia business professor Thomas Davidoff.
"Usually, that is a precursor to a decline in prices."
A set of conflicting numbers have been reported on just how much sales have slowed in Regina.
In a July 5 press release, the Association of Regina Realtors reported a 14 per cent decrease in Regina city proper for June 2017 compared with June of last year.
On July 17, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported Regina sales to be down 32 per cent.
The difference in these numbers matters because the more sales are down — when coupled with a glut of listings — the more likely a price drop is on the way, Davidoff said.
Geography and reporting
The reason for the discrepancy between the two figures, and how to avoid a similar issue in the future, is something the organizations will be discussing come month end, said Rob Reynar, who works for the Regina association.
The figures are not normally so different, but June looks to have been the "perfect storm" regarding variations in reporting methods, he said.
"It's likely a question about what's been included," said Pierre Leduc, spokesperson for the national association.
The national association receives its data from from the Regina association, he said. But it reports figures that properly reflect what's known as the census metropolitan area. Regina has never used those corrected figures in its own reporting, Reynar said.
Sold versus 'sold'
As well, the size of the discrepancy could be one of timing, said Reynar.
Regina uses a "system sold date," Reynar said, which is a timestamp that indicates when a listing moves from an active status to a sold status.
The national association uses what's called a "sell date": a manually entered date that can fluctuate "reasonably a couple of weeks," he said.
This means some sales that happen in a given month may not be reported until the following month, depending on the date used, he said.
"We're both talking about fruit: one of us is talking about oranges, one of
us is talking about apples, and sometimes that gets confusing."
Regina has been using the same reporting method for about three decades, Reynar said.
"It's just a legacy issue; it's the way we've always reported data."